Risk Assessment

The risk assessment built upon the work carried out in the previous project tasks. It utilised the agreed methodology from the Method Note, the information collected in the regional resource database and the information on shipping densities and routes from the traffic and use study to calculate the risk of marine pollution within the Bonn Agreement area.

The risk assessment was split into three sections : a quantitative risk assessment of mineral oil pollution for which the most data was available; a qualitative risk assessment for Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) pollution was undertaken. As data on transport is more difficult to access, a full quantitative assessment could not be undertaken at this stage. Finally, based upon the outcomes of these two assessments, risk reduction measures were identified.

For mineral oil, the risk assessment :

1. Identified the risk for accidental release including the frequency and quantity of oil releases/spillages from various sources in the Bonn Agreement area (ship accidents, deliberate and unintentional spills, ship to ship transfers, bunker operations at sea, collisions with fixed objects and major spillages from offshore oil and gas activities).
2. Addressed issues of uncertainty.

For HNS, the risk assessment :

1. As a first step undertook a desk-top study of marine pollution risks related to the transport of HNS in the Bonn Agreement area (HNS transported in bulk and as packaged goods), based on a qualitative risk assessment approach. It drew on data from existing HNS risk assessment studies, historical HNS incident reports and the regional resource database.
2. Produced a general description of the potential impact of, and damage caused by identified HNS spillages.
3. Identified knowledge/data gaps and possible methodologies for a comprehensive quantitative HNS risk assessment approach in the future.

Key Task Deliverables:

• Oil spill risk assessment report
• HNS risk evaluation report
• Risk reduction position paper